Bitcoin on-chain data highlights key similarities between the 2019 and 2023 BTC price rally
The recent price of BTC has risen from $16500 to $25000, thanks to the short-term squeeze in the futures market and recent macroeconomic policy improvements. However, despite the price increase, data show that many interested customers (including dolphins) have been left inside and outside the venue.
The recent rise in the bitcoin market to $25000 has a lot in common with the rebound in the bear market in 2019, when the bitcoin market soared 330% from a bottom of $3250 in November 2019 to a peak of around 14000 yuan. Recently, the BTC/ dollar has risen 60 per cent from its bottom in November 2022.
The chain associated with the 2019 BTC rally and market indicators send mixed signals about whether the BTC rally will continue. However, we have reason to believe that the sales market is already a critical turning point, either turning into an all-round bull market or returning to a long-term stock market bear market.
Let's take a look at the first five indicators to understand the price dynamics at this stage compared to the 2019 bull market.
BTC raises the level of historical time buying and selling
The price of Bitcoin exceeds the 200-day moving average (MA) to $19600, which may encourage paper traders to create long positions. Historically, this indicator has always played the role of medium-and short-term axis, rising above it, and vice versa.
The BTC/ dollar usually retests the 200-day moving average at the time of improvement, which increases the probability of a move to $19500. However, this was not the case in 2019, when gold prices continued to rise and did not adjust to the 200-day daily moving average.
In addition, traders are likely to care about the 200th weekly moving average, which is located at $25100. The bitcoin market never fell below the 200-week daily moving average until November 2022, and standing at that level again may encourage tech customers to add to the fashion trend.
However, before the promotion occurs, the trader may hesitate to exit the market again. The financing rate for continuous swaps is currently neutral, indicating that foreign exchange traders are waiting to be determined.
Login password tweet trader Immortal found that, taking full account of the duration of the decline at this stage and the rise in 2019, the sales market is only at the "central point". The 2019 rally took 193 days from bottom to top, while it was only 92 days after the bottom on November 9, 2023.
Inmortal has shown once again that if timeline betting in 2019 is founded in 2023, the BTC/ dollar is likely to soar to $46000 by March.
A relatively stable supply is closer to the top of the oscillator in 2019.
Bitcoin's steady money supply rate (SSR) oscillator takes into account the level of market consumption. The measure refers to the ratio between the market capitalization of Bitcoin and the steady money supply. The low reading in the SSR oscillator indicates that the consumption power of the stable coin is higher. In turn, the surge in the index indicates that there is an overbought situation.
In February 2023, the bitcoin market soared, and SSR oscillators soared to levels not seen since 2019 and 2021. The indicator shows that such proactive trends are likely to end soon. There is little chance of rising to the $30,000 mental state mark for the last time.
However, people have reservations about this information, and supplies have fallen sharply as regulators have cracked down on stable dollar loans. If it deviates from the SSR oscillator to show the overbought situation.
One of the most worrying problems with this rally at this stage is that there is no dolphin buying. In turn, in 2019, the number and ownership of BTC detailed addresses with more than 1000 BTC changed as prices soared from the bottom, and dolphins were sold in the current rebound. The difference in the price of the total number of dolphins has caused anxiety about the sustainability of this proactive trend.
The data information shows a key turning point in the short and medium term.
Investors have strengthened their adjusted win trading positions in the upward trend, as illustrated by the fact that the gross margin on expenditure output (SOPR) indicator remains above 1. Conversely, in the downward trend, short orders become the core sales market by selling in the event of a rebound. The cross type of index above 1 is a recessive trend reversal data signal.
The 7-day moving average of the Glassnode's revised SOPR indicator indicates that the bear market trend in the stock market may have reversed. When BTC rose by 20800 yuan in January 2023, the index became higher. The indicator retests the important support line, where the price of Bitcoin is $21800, making it the key support line for a sustained upward trend.
Similarly, the price of gold has risen above the average buying level of short-term or long-term holders, which is another data sign of a reversal in the underlying trend. This may be a sign that with the rebalancing of the chain oscillator, the sales market has reached an important turning point.
This indicator also suggests that there may be an implicit big bull trend when gold prices remain above the support lines of $21800, $20800 and $19600.
A monthly closing price above $25100 may encourage derivatives and technical traders to buy into the current rally, but there are some warning signs that the sales market is likely to be overheated and the possibility of a rapid adjustment to a lower support line cannot be ruled out.
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