BTC whale population shrinks to early 2020 levels — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Mar 16, 2023 | wjb news

Bitcoin (BTC) continued to drive the end of the February rally, as the monthly summary officially closed for another week of market prices.

By the end of the second month of 2023, one of the largest digital currencies of this category is likely to maintain its rise and maintain a double-headed opportunity in the process.

Can the happy time continue? The coming week often means that a key industry in the market price of BTC will make a decision around 25000 yuan.

Investment analysts are closely focused on raising $30,000 if the support can become longer and longer, but there are still concerns that there is still a good chance of returning to the pressure level occupied in January.

In a quiet week of macroeconomic data, all the metal catalysts that determine the rise or fall of Bitcoin against the dollar will come from Bitcoin itself.

There is no doubt that the chain of data shows that long-term bitcoin holders are not in the mood to sell, and at current prices, his bitcoin openness continues to grow.

When talking about what Bitcoin is likely to do in the coming week, Cointelegraph takes into account some important factors that must be kept in mind.

The monthly summary of Bitcoin closes and clears the development trend in March.

By Sunday, Bitcoin looked neck and neck, but it managed to prevent a big correction and reversed its rise in the new week.

For some people looking forward to a rebound in the big bull market, the weekly closing price of around 23500 yuan is good news.

REKT Capital, a popular trader and investment analyst, explained: "Bitcoin has successfully broken through the $23400 mark, which is also the top of the monthly summary of the macroeconomic range."

"this is also the upside that BTC needs to do when it comes to the end of February. It will be very interesting to conclude the market on a monthly basis.

At current levels, Bitcoin rose about 1.25% against the dollar in February 2023-not high by historical time norms, but still noticeable at this year's level of increase.

For REKT Capital, March is the real month of success and failure of Bitcoin against the dollar, because it is close to the trend line, raising this trend line will mean a full reversal of the market.

"the market is coming to an end in February, and it's really not too exciting for Bitcoin, just as it was before the full-blown outbreak on a monthly basis in history," he added.

"because the macroeconomic decline is a tilted moving average, the price of innovation in Bitcoin in March will be slightly lower, about $24500."

Another post strictly enforced $25000 to raise this level to "determine" the trend of macroeconomic growth.

Crypto Chase, a trader in the same industry, is more established on the market price in the short term. In an overnight tweet, he also set $25000 as the moral bottom line.

"22.7 the most perfect label and jump. But move to a new house on Sunday.. I wouldn't be surprised if I had another test of 0.618 meters or the third lap. "he commented.

At this point, for me, success or failure depends on this. Hold it, you can still see 25K liq, fallen, and then 20K.

In addition, buying and selling online resources Stoxx loan coin snake lizard in the four-hour chart describes the price and relative strength index (RSI) "short-term rally reversal", as Sunday draws to a close.

Macroeconomic focus shifts to central bank liquidity

Compared with the previous two weeks, the release of US macroeconomic data will be even more depressed in early March, which is a refreshing change.

But, as Cointelegraph reports, investment analysts increasingly see peer sales in Asia as implicit bitcoin price-related factors.

The introduction of liquidity by the central bank-in stark contrast to the Fed meeting-remains an important topic of discussion.

Tedtalksmacro, a popular current affairs commentator, wrote on Twitter that day: "Worldwide liquidity-it is expected to rise in 2023, but has fallen recently."

-China gave about $450 billion to the financial market in December January.-the liquidity of the United States is similar, and the liquidity of the government sector recently exceeded that of the Federal Reserve meeting QT. The industry is the product of the era of liquidity * stock investment risk.

Even so, Tedtalksmacro elaborated on the potential of the Bank of Japan, the Japanese financial institution (BoJ), warning that the central bank was still likely to resort to financial sector tightening to curb inflation.

"on Friday, Japan's core inflation hit its highest level since 1981, adding to speculation that the central bank will need to tighten fiscal policy after years of extremely loose monetary policy," he stressed. "

After the release of the consumer price index (CPI) data in January, he compared the main performance of US macroeconomic property with the login password, and added that although other property was gradually rising, the login password property was still "difficult to remove".

Mosaic Asset, a data analysis platform, focused on the probability of raising the benchmark interest rate at the Fed meeting in March, which was stronger than expected.

Because there is no sign that economic growth has slowed, and another inflation report released last week is hotter than expected. This adds a lot of work pressure to the Fed meeting and requires it to maintain a faster and longer rate of interest rate rise than the market forecast, "the Fed meeting wrote in the latest article series" Market Mosaic "on February 26.

"We can see this in the probability of the strength of the next rate hike, and the implied possibility of the market at this stage is to focus on raising interest rates by another 0.25%. But opinion has quickly shifted to a 0.5% probability, and interest rates will remain at the leading level for more years.

According to CME's FedWatch special tool, the probability of raising interest rates by 0.5 per cent in February is now 27.7 per cent, instead of 0.25 per cent in February.

Merchants expect losses in the first week of 2023

Although Bitcoin is likely to have risen by more than 40 per cent so far this year, the road to recovery remains sensitive for the average Hodler.

This is also the result of the latest report from the research center Santiment, which shows that BTC market prices were mixed last week, but still succeeded in realizing the merchants' losses.

The same is true for ETH, the first week that merchants lost in 2023.

Sandy Monti commented: "this week, Bitcoin and ethernet traders sold more at a loss than profitable traders, and this is the first such week since 2023."

"historically, once investors lose money more frequently, they are more likely to have a bottom."

The bad luck of merchants is very different from the still determined response of long-term holders, who once again increase their bitcoin trading positions.

According to the information of Glassnode, the net position of stockholders changed to a new record of four months this weekend, reflecting the speed of accumulation.

In addition, the percentage of BTC supply, which has been dormant for at least five years, is now higher than ever, at 28.24%.

Bitcoin earnings hit a new record in August

At this stage, something similar is happening to Bitcoin miners.

Here, Glassnode statistics show that miners hold more BTC than they sell BTC over a rolling 30-day period, but current prices make this trend increasingly unstable.

Although falling prices will not take long to repair net sales, the situation is still much healthier than it was a few months ago.

A glimmer of hope comes from miners' earnings, which, though small, are at their highest level in August.

Earnings, thanks to sequential spending, exceeded the $1 million level in February.

A study last week highlighted that while numbering made Bitcoin's "memory pool fuller", Glassnode showed that miners were still trying to get rid of Bitcoin.

For Bitcoin whales, it's early 2020.

They may be responsible for some interesting events in the order information of the trading center, but the total number of bitcoin whales has actually decreased.

Because the price of bitcoin is still 65% lower than it has ever been, one of the largest bitcoin investors is not sure it is time to return to the sales market.

According to Glassnode, the total number of whales is now at a three-year low-there are only 1663 distinctive physical lines holding 1000 BTC or more. Three years ago, in February 2020, Bitcoin sold for less than $10,000.

Glassnode defines a unique physical line as "a set of detailed addresses manipulated by the same Internet physical line".

At its best in February 2021, there are 2161 such whale physical lines.

But the "clustering" of whale trading activities can provide insight into strong support and resistance, even when the whale population is scarce.

As the online resource Whalemap said, $23000 is still a key price focus because of this month's whale factor.